Georgetown: The Ministry of Agriculture, after consultation with its Hydrometeorological Office, and taking into consideration predictions from various Regional and International Forecasting and Weather Agencies, is today issuing an EL NIÑO WATCH.
Guyana’s rainfall for the period of March, April and so far in May (2014) has been below the average amount expected for the same period from long term rainfall averages.
TABLE # 1: RAINFALL TOTALS FOR SELECTED STATIONS
|
NAME OF STATION |
MARCH
LONG TERM AVERAGE |
MARCH ACTUAL |
APRIL
LONG TERM AVERAGE |
APRIL ACTUAL |
MAY
LONG TERM AVERAGE |
MAY ACTUAL(MAY 13TH, 2014) Note this is 13 days avg. |
|
GEORGETOWN |
111.6 |
61.5 |
153.4 |
67.5 |
277.4 |
10.1 |
|
OGLE |
93.9 |
79.1 |
134.2 |
68.2 |
224.9 |
5.4 |
|
LENORA FRONT |
95.6 |
75.9 |
179.4 |
175.2 |
309 |
16.2 |
|
ANNA REGINA |
75.3 |
69.1 |
159.6 |
174.8 |
333.2 |
48.9 |
|
TIMEHRI |
119.9 |
66.2 |
188.9 |
91.1 |
318.4 |
18.9 |
|
MCKENZIE |
13.7 |
93.9 |
165.9 |
128.2 |
2614 |
33.8 |
|
LETHEM |
18.9 |
13.1 |
89 |
54.7 |
274.5 |
37.8 |
|
MABARUMA |
94.1 |
52.2 |
94.1 |
117.3 |
327 |
42.1 |
The below normal amount of rainfall experienced along Guyana’s coast for this period is reflected in the levels of water in Guyana’s various water conservancies.
Water Level Data
|
Current Level |
Fully Supply Level |
Critical Level (Low ) |
|
EDWC 55-50 |
57.50 |
53 |
|
MMA 60.25 |
64.0 |
59.5 |
|
Boerasirie 59.30 |
61.30 |
55 |
|
Tapakuma 56.60 |
57.5 |
|
According to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic discussion issued by Climate Prediction Center (NCEP) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society on 08 May, 2014, there is now more than a 65% chance that the Northern Hemisphere will experience El Nino conditions by the Season June-July-August (JJA) 2014 (Fig 1). Because of this new data, the ENSO Alert System Status is no “El Nino Watch”
ACTUAL AND PREDICTED ENSO CONDITIONS AS OF 8 MAY, 2014.
|
Season |
La Niña |
Neutral |
El Niño |
|
AMJ 2014 |
1% |
58% |
41% |
|
MJJ 2014 |
1% |
41% |
58% |
|
JJA 2014 |
1% |
32% |
67% |
|
JAS 2014 |
2% |
27% |
71% |
|
ASO 2014 |
2% |
24% |
74% |
|
SON 2014 |
2% |
23% |
75% |
|
OND 2014 |
2% |
20% |
78% |
|
NDJ 2014 |
3% |
19% |
78% |
|
DJF 2014 |
3% |
20% |
77% |
The Ministry of Agriculture has established a Special El Nino Working group to monitor and plan actions to reduce any adverse impact of a possible El Nino on agriculture production.
